Annoying Questions I'd Like Answered...

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:46 pm

Note that since the economy is growing and inflation is happening and the country never ever "retires", it is entirely possible for the debt to rise and the debt situation to nonetheless improve. If the total debt is rising slower than inflation, the "real debt" is going down. If the total debt is rising slower than inflation plus economic growth, than the real indebtedness of the country is going down on a per-taxpayer basis, which is a rather more important number.

Also recall that the debt isn't a giant pile that we put things into or take things out of - it's a series of discrete bonds with discrete maturities. When I buy a ten year treasury bond, that locks in a specific interest and a specific amount of money that the government will have to pay me in exactly ten years - no more and no less. So whether the government runs a surplus or a deficit at some point in between now and ten years from now, my chunk of US debt won't go anywhere. Practically speaking, the US has a lot of those bonds outstanding with lots of different people - and issues new ones all the time. So when the government runs a surplus they will pay off some of the bonds that come up and issue less bonds to replace them. If the government is running a deficit, they will still pay off the ones that come due, but they'll issue more new bonds than they are paying off each month.

If the government had a twenty trillion dollar windfall, they might stop issuing bonds altogether and pay off the debt as it came due - but this would still be a long process because it's not a credit card and the state can't pay the individual bond holders early even if it wanted to.

-Username17

fectin · Post by **fectin** » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:21 pm

You sort-of can pay off early, because a fair amount of the budget is financed by issuing additional bonds, even when there's a surplus (very roughly like using a credit card even when you have cash). If you issue fewer bonds, that's effectively similar to "paying early". You could also offer reasonable buyback rates, which would be exactly like paying early, with a slight surcharge.

There is also a series of "loans" from social security, which are sometimes included in the debt figure, but usually not. Those could be paid off directly.

But these are elaborations on Frank's point, not refutations of it.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:20 pm

This is a big reason why people don't agree about how big of a surplus Clinton actually ran. The default assumption of "zero" is that when the current block Treasury Notes comes up, you'll pay them off and issue new treasury notes. But how many T-notes you're "supposed" to issue is up for debate.

Let's say the US government issued a $1000 10-year Treasury Note in 1988 at the then current Reagan-era interest rate of 9% (yes, really). In 1998, that would be paid in full at a nominal value of $2367.36. Now, the government is expected to issue new T-notes at the then current rate of 5.6%. But how many?

One option is that the government is supposed to issue a new $1000 Treasury bond, meaning that the government has to come up with $1367.36 of cash and a $1000 bond issuance to be considered at "zero".

Another option is that the government is supposed to issue a new bond of equal real value ($1000 in 1988 was worth $1397.75). This means that the government would have to come up with $969.61 in cash to be considered at "zero".

Another option is that the government is supposed to issue a new bond that is of proportional value to the original bond. That is to say a nominal value that is increased by inflation and rising GDP. Which is to say $1724.06. Which means that the government would have to come up with $643.29 to be considered at "zero".

Another option is that the government is supposed to issue a new bond of equal value to the endstate nominal value of the expired bond - the whole $2367.36. In that case, the government would have to scrape together zero dollars in cash to be considered at "zero".

So when the government is "running a surplus" and it comes time for the old paper to get paid off and the government to issue new paper, they are going to be paying some amount of cash and issuing some amount of new bonds. And then people are going to be arguing past each other about how much of a surplus that really was. Because for some people every $1 of cash paid in lieu of new bond issuances is "surplus", but for other people cash payments don't start counting as surplus until they start paying down the real, relative, or even nominal debt.

During the Clinton era, surpluses were high enough that by any definition the debt was being paid down. But depending on which definition you use, the amount of debt reduction is going to obviously vary a lot.

-Username17

PoliteNewb · Post by **PoliteNewb** » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:02 pm

Blasted wrote: It's worth noting that because of the safety of bonds, earlier in the crisis yields dipped below 0%, that is people were paying the US government to lend money to them. In which case: debt? Yes please.

Whoah there, batman. Bonds had negative returns? Can someone explain that?

If it's what I think it is, no, NOT "yes please". I don't believe it's ethical for the U.S. government to intentionally defraud bond buyers by selling them bonds that will cost them money in the long term.

Ancient History · Post by **Ancient History** » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:05 pm

It's not fraud, the people buying the bonds know the rates. What it means is that, like some bank accounts, the people are paying the government to hold onto their money for them.

erik · Post by **erik** » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:25 pm

Heh, I should sell bonds at -5% interest.

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Fri Sep 07, 2012 11:42 pm

In most cases, when a bond pays negative interest it is paying negative real interest. That is, it is paying interest lower than inflation. People still take them because while they are losing money, they are losing money slower than they would if they left their money in their sock drawer in cash. There are inflation protected bonds, where people lock in a real interest rate rather than a nominal interest rate, and they are accepting a negative real interest rate from the US.

Now where it gets weird is the negative nominal interest rate enjoyed by Denmark. That's when the bond holder gives the state a pile of cash and then at a specified later date the country hands back a pile of cash with smaller numbers on it. That was super hard for me to wrap my mind around until I noticed that you could buy Danish bonds with Euros, and then they would pay it back in Danish Kroner. So basically, people are paying the Danish government to turn their Euros into Kroner and also making a hedge that Euro-denominated debt might not be worth a whole heck of a lot in a few years time.

-Username17

Koumei · Post by **Koumei** » Sat Sep 08, 2012 2:48 am

FrankTrollman wrote:and also making a hedge that Euro-denominated debt might not be worth a whole heck of a lot in a few years time.

Which, as it turns out, seems to be a pretty safe bet.

Hicks · Post by **Hicks** » Sat Sep 08, 2012 7:58 am

In dominions 3, how do I add/remove gods from a nations god selection list, especially for a custom nation?

DSMatticus · Post by **DSMatticus** » Sat Sep 08, 2012 12:42 pm

My understanding is that nations don't have lists of gods. The ability for a nation to select the pretender is stored in the unit entry. The list you're referring to is likely a hardcoded default, and will persist no matter what you do.

Hicks · Post by **Hicks** » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:14 pm

So is there no way I could have a custom nation that allows you to select a gorgon, colossal fetish, or stone head and not select the master lich, moloc, or arch mage? How did y'all get custom pretenders in the forum draft games?

Username17 · Post by **Username17** » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:49 pm

Hicks wrote:So is there no way I could have a custom nation that allows you to select a gorgon, colossal fetish, or stone head and not select the master lich, moloc, or arch mage? How did y'all get custom pretenders in the forum draft games?

There is a mod command that sets a unit as a god for only one nation, but the fact that specific units are available as gods for several nations is hard coded in a weird way.

If you want to add a god to a faction, you copystats the god you want and then make the new version available as a god to a single nation of the nation you're adding it to. Removing gods is more complex, but based on the same concept.

-Username17

Cynic · Post by **Cynic** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:16 am

Where can I get Kumis in America? I've been tormenting my wife with insults about her being drunk off of kumiss and that was her she did X.

She told me to just go drink Kumis. I have taken this as a challenge. I never realized that the drink actually existed outside of A Song of ice and fire.

I looked a little bit and couldn't find a way to get actual mare's milk. only free dried powdered versions.

SO is there somewhere I can find and buy Kumis in America? Or actual unpasteurized mare's milk in the United States?

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:24 am

A quick google search shows this: http://www.alpina.com/us/en/products-li ... umis-8-oz/

Cynic · Post by **Cynic** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:37 am

I meant the fermented alcoholic version. Emailed them and this was supposedly the completely alcohol free kumis. Normally Kumis has about the same level of alcoholic content as wine. Probably a little weaker.

Winnah · Post by **Winnah** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:42 am

A simple koumiss recipe.

4 cups full cream milk. Slowly heat in saucepan until you see some steam rising, then allow to stand.

Mix 2 and half teaspoons of yeast into a quarter cup of warm (not hot) water. Then add 2 teaspoons of raw sugar. Once it has dissolved, mix with the milk.

Pour into some bottles, no more than 3/4 full due to the CO2 build up from the yeast. Shake the bottles in order to ensure everything has mixed well. Don't shake too much or you'll actually end up with more sediment.

Leave it to stand at least overnight, then let it chill in an icebox for about a day before consumption.

Not as potent as homebrewed beer. Apparently mares milk is better for brewing due to a higher water content, but you can use most milk. If you wanted to brew something more potent, then you would need a lighter milk and would probably want to water it down a bit, then add more yeast and sugar. It would probably last a bit longer too.

edit: You can probably buy it if there is a Russian wholesaler/supermarket anywhere near you.

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Sun Sep 09, 2012 5:47 am

Well.... while spirits are illegal to distill on your own, you can totally make wine, so you could probably buy some of that and make your own, assuming you can find a methodology...

Ted the Flayer · Post by **Ted the Flayer** » Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:24 pm

How does one meet other gamers?

Tried putting up fliers at the game stores and put up a craigslist ad. Are there other options?

sabs · Post by **sabs** » Tue Sep 18, 2012 8:26 pm

Hang out at gaming store, and talk to folks. Go to game store gaming club nights, and talk to people.

Get incredibly fucking lucky!

oh and Ted! Congrats on being Across the country from where you were before!

Prak · Post by **Prak** » Wed Sep 19, 2012 3:45 am

I think Frank mentioned some numbers regarding textbook publishing at some point. I'm trying to break my mother's fantasy that every business man is a gleaming paragon of goodness and that textbook prices are somehow justified, and need to sight sales numbers, pay of writers, and cost to produce, if possible.

Juton · Post by **Juton** » Wed Sep 19, 2012 4:13 am

Ted the Flayer wrote:How does one meet other gamers?

Tried putting up fliers at the game stores and put up a craigslist ad. Are there other options?

For smaller games, like Shadowrun, you can check their forums for gamers in your location or post an add your self. Fliers never worked well for me either. Neither has meeting people at gaming conventions. What did work better was to start out in organized play events, like MtG, in between rounds chat with your opponent and see if they are into what you are.

Finding a good gaming group is a lot like finding a date, you have to just go up and meet a lot of people. It's also like dating because there are a lot of crazies out there.

MGuy · Post by **MGuy** » Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:18 am

Odd question but recently my friend's cat (male) has been aggressively friendly with me as of late. Now I'm not really a cat person but my gf likes'em and took a female cat off the street (who also likes to climb on top of my hands and make a bed out of my lap and clothes) and my friends have 3 cats of their own. I'm curious as to what would make the stray female and older male cat both so friendly with me when I don't really "do" anything for them. I don't feed them or give them water but for some reason they seem to love bein' around me. Is this one of those random things or am I just a pussy magnet?

K · Post by K » Wed Sep 19, 2012 7:31 am

Some cats are just easy.

Maj · Post by **Maj** » Wed Sep 19, 2012 10:48 pm

Maye each can smell the other cat on you?

PoliteNewb · Post by **PoliteNewb** » Wed Sep 19, 2012 11:48 pm

MGuy wrote:Odd question but recently my friend's cat (male) has been aggressively friendly with me as of late. Now I'm not really a cat person but my gf likes'em and took a female cat off the street (who also likes to climb on top of my hands and make a bed out of my lap and clothes) and my friends have 3 cats of their own. I'm curious as to what would make the stray female and older male cat both so friendly with me when I don't really "do" anything for them. I don't feed them or give them water but for some reason they seem to love bein' around me. Is this one of those random things or am I just a pussy magnet?

Some cats (and to a lesser extent, some dogs) will simply pick favorites, for no discernable reason at all, that I can tell.

Just be glad you are not allergic, as so many people who are "chosen" in this fashion are.